Poland voted on 15 October in a historic parliamentary election that resulted in a change of direction for the European country. Its repercussions will reverberate in Europe for years to come.
Since 2015, the incumbent Law and Justice Party has been pushing reforms that undermine the rule of law and democratic standards. Among other changes, the ruling party has stripped institutions of their pluralism, appointed loyalists in key administrative posts, captured the courts and public broadcasters, restricted the space for civil society and pushed an anti-migration and anti-LGBTQI+ agenda. All of it has sent Poland’s government on a legal collision course with the EU. While those were free elections, a number of issues with democratic standards led experts to question whether they were fair.
Still, the opposition parties came back from a challenging period and presented a strong, united front. Even if polls were close and the Law and Justice Party won the election, the opposition has the opportunity to form a majority. It will most likely get a chance at the premiership.
Democracy Reporting International has been following events in Poland weeks before the vote, drafting articles on the country’s rule of law challenges and monitoring social media to shed light on how Polish political leaders and voters discuss the elections online. Find below insights from our social media monitoring and in-depth articles on Poland’s rule of law challenges and possible paths to reform in a symposium with Verfassungsblog.
Basic facts about the Polish election
Date: 15 October
Total number of seats elected: 460 members of the Sejm (lower house) and 100 members of the Senate (upper house) for a four-year term.
Electoral system: Members of Sejm are elected in 41 electoral districts in a proportionate system. The seats are distributed in electoral districts using the so-called D’Hondt method.
Turnout: It is expected to be high. In the previous parliamentary elections in 2019, the voter turnout was a record 61.74%.
Main competing committees
- Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwo’015b’0107, PiS) – right wing, soft Eurosceptic
- Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska, KO) – centrist-liberal, pro-EU
- The Left (Lewica) – social-democratic/left, pro-EU
- The Confederation (Konfederacja) – radical right/libertarian, hard Eurosceptic
- Third Way (Trzecia Droga) – agrarian/centre-right, pro-EU, coalition committee
- Nonpartisan Councillors (Bezpartyjni Samorz’0105dowcy) – right-wing, hard Eurosceptic
Electoral thresholds: To enter the Sjem, committees need 5% and coalitions of electoral committees need 8%. National minority election committees (notably, the German minority in Poland) are exempt from the electoral threshold requirement.
The Referendum
As well as voting in parliamentary elections, the government has introduced a referendum on the same day of the election. It will consist of four questions:
- “Do you support the sale of state assets to foreign entities, leading to the loss of control by Polish citizens over strategic sectors of the economy?”
- “Do you support raising the retirement age, including reinstating the retirement age of 67 for both women and men?”
- “Do you support the removal of barriers on the border of the Republic of Poland with the Republic of Belarus?”
- “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa, in accordance with the compulsory relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?”
The result of a referendum is binding if more than 50% of voters participate in it. Voter turnout is calculated via voting cards. The only way to refuse participation in the referendum and still get to participate in the election is by publicly declining to take the voting card. This raises issues regarding the confidentiality of the vote since it reveals that the person is likely not a supporter of the ruling party that is organising the referendum.
Poland’s Top Rule of Law Challenges
Main problems with election fairness
Unbalanced Representation: The number of MPs allocated to each electoral district is typically determined based on population data. Failure by the election regulation body to change the number of seats assigned to some districts has led to a discrepancy between the actual population of certain areas, particularly in large cities and depopulating regions, and the number of parliamentary seats allocated to them. This can result in underrepresentation in some areas and overrepresentation in others.
Misuse of Funds: The ruling party is utilising public funds and resources for its election campaign. Prior to its kickoff, the government allocated millions of Polish zlotys to promote programs that are part of the PiS party’s agenda, such as increasing a flagship child benefit by 60 per cent from 2024. The government has also announced that it will provide additional “13th and 14th pensions” to retirees in 2023, amounting to approximately 360 euros net.
Media Manipulation: The public media are subordinated to the ruling party and broadcast propaganda supporting pro-government narratives. They also run a smear campaign against opposition parties. Through PKN Orlen company, the government has gained control of the media conglomerate Polska Presse, which owns most regional newspapers, local gazettes, and hundreds of online portals supporting the PiS party in the campaign. The ruling majority pushed a law targeting the television group TVN, which is owned by an American company. However, President Duda vetoed the law. The media regulatory bodies, the National Broadcasting Council and the National Media Council, lack independence as they have become under the governing coalition’s influence. The National Broadcasting Council is able to fine private media and withhold the renewal of old broadcasting licenses.
Lack of Effective Oversight over Public Media: National media regulators do not react to the widespread use of public state-owned media, including the national TV and radio broadcasters, as well as media owned by state energy company Orlen, as vehicles for governmental propaganda and biased reporting. Regulatory oversight in the case of state-owned outlets has eroded under the current government.
Legal Pressure: Before the elections, Poland established a State Commission for Investigating Russian Influence on the Internal Security of the Republic of Poland in the years 2007-2022. The Commission, which is widely seen as an attempt to attack political opponents, chiefly among them the leader of the opposition party Civic Platform – Donald Tusk (hence the name “Lext Tusk”), is set to begin its work. Despite subsequent amendments to the laws establishing the Commission, it has broad powers and inadequate safeguards for those being investigated. According to the Venice Commission
