Welcome to the forefront of the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections, slated for October 15, where a strikingly polarised political and media landscape sets the stage for a high-stakes contest. As seasoned observers, the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA), along with DRI, has delved into the intricacies of this electoral battle.
The competition unfolds between the current parliamentary majority and the center-left opposition, both vying vigorously for control of Poland. This electoral chapter is marked by substantial developments and shifts within Poland’s political and societal landscape. We’ve closely examined these changes, encompassing significant revisions to the electoral code and the establishment of a committee tasked with probing Russian influence in Poland. However, these developments have not been without controversy, with concerns raised about potential bias favouring the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party’s re-election ambitions. In tandem, a nationwide referendum on asylum-seekers looms on the horizon, strategically designed to pivot the electoral discourse towards migration, fuelling apprehensions about refugee-related issues.
Our assessment reveals a complex environment characterised by authoritarian tendencies, socio-political divisions, intolerant rhetoric, and perceived threats to judicial independence and media freedom. Yet, it’s the online sphere where we unearth significant challenges to the integrity of these elections:
Hate speech
Hate speech campaigns have witnessed a disturbing surge, targeting LGBTQI+ individuals, women’s rights advocates, and minority groups. Politicians, including those aligned with the ruling majority, have resorted to attacks against these groups during previous election campaigns, exacerbating societal divisions.
Toxic narratives revolving around Ukrainian refugees, propagated mainly by extremist and alt-right groups, exploit the intricate history of Polish-Ukrainian relations. These narratives foster discriminatory political rhetoric and exploit resentment towards Ukrainian migrants as a means to attract specific voter segments.
Disinformation
Politicians from the parliamentary majority and state-owned media, often with support from state-controlled companies, have been instrumental in propagating disinformation regarding the causes of surging inflation and the worsening economic situation. This includes attributing inflation solely to Russia’s attack on Ukraine and laying the blame for higher energy costs mostly on EU climate policies, a narrative that simplifies the complex economic challenges.
Disinformation campaigns, primarily orchestrated by the parliamentary majority, have also concentrated on European Union policies, fueling public resentment towards the EU and the political opposition. This dissemination of misleading narratives poses a significant threat to public trust in crucial institutions.
Jaros’0142aw Kaczy’0144ski, the leader of the ruling party, has voiced concerns about potential election-rigging by the opposition, echoing previous allegations of falsification in the 2014 local elections. Such claims, lacking substantial evidence, run the risk of eroding confidence in the electoral process.
Foreign interference
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the state research institute NASK, specializing in cybersecurity issues, has identified thousands of social media accounts suspected of being part of Russian propaganda activities. These accounts have been instrumental in spreading disinformation and harmful content aimed at exacerbating social polarization, raising significant concerns about foreign interference.
A rise in anti-Ukrainian narratives, often involving the falsification of information regarding Polish aid to and presence in Ukraine, has induced internal conflicts within the nation. Instances of manipulated images and reports depicting “Polish mercenaries” in Ukraine have been identified as part of Russian disinformation campaigns.
Online political advertising
The absence of control over paid electoral content online, both in terms of public oversight and effective and transparent mechanisms on online platforms, has paved the way for unlimited opportunities for online electoral campaigning by a wide array of actors. This unregulated environment poses substantial risks to the fairness of the electoral process.
Both individuals and legal entities can actively engage in election campaigning in Poland, including the dissemination of false information, without adequate control measures or the threat of penalties. This prevailing lack of accountability has raised considerable concerns about the potential manipulation of public opinion.
In light of these multifaceted challenges, safeguarding the integrity of the upcoming Polish parliamentary elections is imperative. To protect the principles of democracy, transparency, and fair competition, concerted efforts by government authorities, civil society organisations, and international partners are essential. Ensuring that the democratic process remains fair, transparent, and free from manipulation will hence be crucial in accurately representing the voice of the Polish people in the electoral outcome. This requires proactive measures to counter divisive rhetoric, address disinformation campaigns, and shield the democratic process from undue influence.
Our comprehensive report, “Polish Parliamentary Elections: Assessing Online Risks, ” delves into these challenges, offering in-depth analysis, insights, and recommendations to safeguard the democratic process. Read the full report now to equip yourself with a full understanding of the risks surrounding the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections!
Kindly take a moment to share your insights by participating in our survey. You may also register for our newsletter (select Digital Democracy to receive our Digital Drop, a newsletter dedicated to this topic). Your feedback contributes to our ongoing efforts in enhancing our research and promoting informed discourse.
