On Sunday, 5/18/2025, Poland’s efforts to restore the rule of law will face the ultimate test. The outcome of the presidential election could determine whether the government’s efforts in fixing past damage to Poland’s democratic and justice systems will move forward or remain stuck.
A major obstacle to progress in Poland’s democratic restoration has been the turbulent cohabitation between the new government and President Duda, who has repeatedly used his powers to block reforms. Duda, who is affiliated with Law and Justice (PiS), the party that damaged Poland’s democracy between 2015 and 2023, treats the presidency as a tool to preserve this legacy.
After eight years of anti-democratic rule, the restoration of the rule of law and democratic institutions, such as the media, is far from complete, making this election a make-or-break moment for the country.
Our analysis of the manifestos, attitudes, and opinions of Poland’s six leading presidential candidates reveals a sharp divide between Karol Nawrocki (backed by PiS) and the rest of the candidates. While Nawrocki frames the current government’s attempts at reform as creating chaos in the judiciary and a constitutional crisis, the rest of the candidates, including Rafa’0142 Trzaskowski, who leads the polls, are very critical of the reforms adopted by PiS after 2015.
But each presidential candidate differs in their visions for the presidency in the context of democratic reform, ranging from the more cooperative and constructive styles of Rafa’0142 Trzaskowski, Szymon Ho’0142ownia, Magdalena Biejat, and Adrian Zandberg, to the more anti-establishment and confrontational stances of S’0142awomir Mentzen and Karol Nawrocki.
The campaign has been dominated by the clash between two major competitors: Rafa’0142 Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki. The final outcome will depend not only on the new allocation of votes formerly cast for far-right and left-wing candidates, but also on voter turnout in the second round. Making any predictions for the exact result of the 2025 presidential race is tricky – this scenario-building paper analyses these two candidates who emerged as front-runners following the first round held on 18 May, with both having a realistic chance to become the next President of Poland.
